January Nevada numbers analysis

The good folks at the Nevada Gaming Control Board have released the January 2010 Nevada casino gaming stats. Here is my summary:

Statewide
1. Baccarat continues to power the state’s card games, with its win increasing by about 12% over last year. This game has actually seen a net gain in the past 3 years–Nevada casinos won about $28 million more from bacc players in Jan. 10 than in Jan. 07, on lower hold. Despite the recession, people are playing more bacc than they did before. The bacc boom seems to be slowing, as this is a smaller increase than from the previous few months, but I’d expect to see it jump again in February (Chinese New Year)
2. Roulette made a surprise comeback, though, winning almost 11% more this January than it did last January. This might just be an aberration, though, since the general trend hasn’t been positive for roulette, and the game still earned about $3 million less than it did in Jan. 07. Also, since roulette makes about 1/4 of what bacc makes, this increase isn’t as significant to the bottom line.
3. All other table games are down statewide, in the double digits. Overall, table revenues were just about flat, with a 0.32% decrease.
4. Sports books nearly doubled their win, but since last January their win fell by more than 50%, this is more a sign of regaining lost ground than the beginning of a sports betting boom.
5. Slot machine revenues were down by almost 5%, with the only real gain coming in the pennies (2.92%). But the number of penny slots on the floor increased by almost 9%, which means that on average each penny machine earned less than it did a year ago.
6. Much of this gain came at the expense of nickel machines, whose inventory decline by about 24%, while revenues sagged by 30%.
7. $100 machines boasted an impressive-seeming 50% gain in win, but as with any high-end play, there’s a great deal of volatility, so this doesn’t necessarily mark the start of a trend. The actual win was just about flat with the Jan. 07 numbers, so there hasn’t been the same kind of systematic increase here as there’s been with baccarat.
8. Overall gaming win was down by 3.22%–not a good sign for the overall health of the state’s gaming economy.

Las Vegas Strip
1. Pretty much the same pattern for table games as for statewide, with bacc, roulette, and the sports book the only bright spots.
2.The roulette win was higher than the state average, more evidence that this wasn’t a broad-based jump in popularity for the game, but just a statistical hiccup.
3. All but $500,000 or so of the statewide baccarat win came from the 17 Strip casinos that offer the game. This is incredible: the economic fortunes of the state of Nevada are becoming increasingly dependent on the high-roller action at 17 casinos. Remember that this is a game with a great deal of volatility, so it’s almost inevitable that there will be months where the win is down despite heavy play.
4. Another way to look at it: 238 baccarat tables on the Strip won more money in January than 1,877 blackjack, craps, and roulette tables. Back in 2007, baccarat won about $4 million more than blackjack alone.
5. The same trends hold for slot play–more penny slots winning more in total, with a lower win-per-machine.

That’s my preliminary look at the statewide and Strip numbers. In general, it’s more of the same, as baccarat continues to be the only real bright spot. The structure of Nevada gaming is changing before our eyes, with penny slots and baccarat proving the be the real winners for casino.

While doing some research last week, I saw a headline from one of the industry magazines, circa November 2001: “Is baccarat play dead?” Things have really changed, and it’s ironic that a recession is leading to a renaissance of the highest of the high-end games.

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